Risk Overview
17 systemic risks tracked across energy, food, water, cyber, nuclear, geopolitical, military, humanitarian, technology, and diplomatic domains
Signal Analysis
61 articlesEscalatory
85%
De-escalatory
8%
Neutral
7%
Risk Trajectory
17 risksAvg Probability
75%
Threat Level
4/5
14
Escalating
3
Active
0
De-escalating
Critical Watch
Top escalation triggersMarch 28 strike pause expiry — if no diplomatic framework emerges, power plant strikes resume and likely trigger Iranian Hormuz mining escalation and retaliation against Gulf desalination
Trigger: No ceasefire agreement or pause extension announced by March 28; satellite imagery showing renewed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
IRGC's 31 autonomous regional commanders increase risk of unauthorized escalation — fragmented command means rogue attacks without Tehran's authorization
Trigger: Regional IRGC unit launches major attack without central authorization, especially against IDF positions in Lebanon or Gulf shipping
MuddyWater Dindoor backdoor pre-positioned in US bank, airport, and defense software company — activation would trigger major cyber escalation
Trigger: Iran activates pre-positioned malware in response to resumed strikes; confirmed cyberattack on US critical infrastructure
Spring planting window closing — if fertilizer supply unresolved by May, 2026 global harvest locked in as significantly reduced regardless of conflict outcome
Trigger: No resolution to China fertilizer export ban or alternative supply routes by early May; USDA confirms further planted acreage reductions
IRGC published list of 29 Western digital infrastructure targets — AWS Bahrain struck twice already suggests systematic campaign against cloud and data centers
Trigger: Third strike on named digital infrastructure target or coordinated multi-target attack on Microsoft, Google, or Oracle facilities
Food Crisis
food · months
Packaging Crisis
supply-chain · immediate
Fertilizer Crisis
food · weeks
Hormuz Closure
shipping · immediate
China Clock
geopolitical · months
NATO Crisis
diplomatic · months
Refugee Crisis
humanitarian · months
Proxy Wars
military · immediate
Irrigation Crisis
agriculture · months
Oil Recession
financial · months
Chip Supply
technology · weeks
Cyber Threat
cyber · immediate
Finance Crisis
financial · months
Digital Strikes
technology · immediate
Water Crisis
water · weeks
Double Chokepoint
shipping · weeks
Nuclear Risk
nuclear · immediate
Critical Deadlines
Planting Window
0days
China Reserves
42days
UAE Water
22days