Risk Overview
17 systemic risks tracked across energy, food, water, cyber, nuclear, geopolitical, military, humanitarian, technology, and diplomatic domains
Signal Analysis
61 articlesEscalatory
85%
De-escalatory
8%
Neutral
7%
Risk Trajectory
17 risksAvg Probability
75%
Threat Level
5/5
14
Escalating
3
Active
0
De-escalating
Critical Watch
Top escalation triggersUS strikes Bushehr nuclear power plant as part of 48-hour ultimatum
Trigger: Satellite imagery showing strikes on Bushehr complex; IAEA emergency session called
Iran retaliates against Saudi Abqaiq processing facility
Trigger: Iranian missile/drone attack on Abqaiq (10M bpd capacity); Brent spikes past $140
Houthis receive Iranian green light and launch first Red Sea attack
Trigger: Confirmed Houthi anti-ship missile launch; Maersk or CMA CGM suspends Red Sea routing
China announces naval escorts for its own tankers through Hormuz
Trigger: PLAN warships deployed to Strait of Hormuz; Beijing diplomatic statement on freedom of navigation
India or Indonesia announces grain export ban to protect domestic supply
Trigger: Official government export restriction announcement; commodity exchange trading halts on rice or wheat
Food Crisis
food · months
Packaging Crisis
supply-chain · immediate
Fertilizer Crisis
food · weeks
Hormuz Closure
shipping · immediate
China Clock
geopolitical · months
NATO Crisis
diplomatic · months
Refugee Crisis
humanitarian · months
Proxy Wars
military · immediate
Irrigation Crisis
agriculture · months
Oil Recession
financial · months
Chip Supply
technology · weeks
Cyber Threat
cyber · immediate
Finance Crisis
financial · months
Digital Strikes
technology · immediate
Water Crisis
water · weeks
Double Chokepoint
shipping · weeks
Nuclear Risk
nuclear · immediate
Critical Deadlines
Planting Window
53days
China Reserves
97days
UAE Water
38days