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de-escalatory·Mar 8·Sunday, March 8, 2026

Kapikoy Border Crossing Becomes One of Few Ways Out of Iran

de-escalatory·85% confidence

Summary

Ground-level reporting from Turkey's Kapikoy crossing near Van province. On March 5, 2,032 entered Turkey, 1,966 departed — roughly balanced. Most are dual nationals, not permanent refugees. Turkey has 380km of concrete walls along its 560km Iran border. Refugees report: 'People are very poor now. They are staying at home, scared.'

Risk Impacts (1)

Cross-border flow still minimal despite massive internal displacement — mitigating factor

Current probability:82%Critical