Cascade Explorer

How 17 systemic risks compound across 27 cascade links — from 5 root causes through second-order effects

Tracked Risks

Root Causes

Direct Links

Moderate Links

Indirect Links

Root Causes(5 risks)

First-Order Effects(6 risks)

Packaging Crisis

95%

Criticalsupply-chain

1 in→ 1 out

Fertilizer Crisis

90%

Criticalfood

1 in→ 2 out

NATO Crisis

85%

Criticaldiplomatic

1 in→ 2 out↺

Chip Supply

75%

Hightechnology

2 in

Water Crisis

60%

Highwater

2 in→ 1 out

Double Chokepoint

50%

Elevatedshipping

1 in→ 2 out

Second-Order Effects(2 risks)

China Clock

85%

Criticalgeopolitical

2 in

Oil Recession

75%

Highfinancial

3 in→ 2 out

Tier 3 Effects(2 risks)

Irrigation Crisis

78%

Highagriculture

2 in→ 1 out

Finance Crisis

70%

Highfinancial

3 in

Tier 4 Effects(1 risk)

Food Crisis

95%

Criticalfood

5 in→ 1 out

Tier 5 Effects(1 risk)

Refugee Crisis

82%

Criticalhumanitarian

2 in

Cascade Connections27 links across 17 risks

Hormuz Closure→Fertilizer Crisisdirect

Hormuz Closure→Oil Recessiondirect

Hormuz Closure→Packaging Crisisdirect

Hormuz Closure→Double Chokepointmoderate

Hormuz Closure→China Clockdirect

Fertilizer Crisis→Food Crisisdirect

Fertilizer Crisis→Irrigation Crisismoderate

Oil Recession→Irrigation Crisisdirect

Packaging Crisis→Food Crisisdirect

Double Chokepoint→Food Crisisdirect

Double Chokepoint→Oil Recessiondirect

Nuclear Risk→Water Crisisdirect

Water Crisis→Food Crisisdirect

Cyber Threat→Water Crisismoderate

Irrigation Crisis→Food Crisisdirect

Proxy Wars→Refugee Crisisdirect

Proxy Wars→Oil Recessionmoderate

Proxy Wars→NATO Crisismoderate

Digital Strikes↺Cyber Threatdirect

Digital Strikes→Finance Crisisdirect

Food Crisis→Refugee Crisismoderate

Hormuz Closure→Chip Supplydirect

Digital Strikes→Chip Supplymoderate

NATO Crisis↺Hormuz Closuredirect

NATO Crisis→China Clockmoderate

Oil Recession→Finance Crisisdirect

Cyber Threat→Finance Crisismoderate

Famine Cascades

90%Hormuz → Urea blocked → Fertilizer shortage → Crop yield collapse

95%Qatar LNG halted → QAFCO offline → 14% world urea gone for years

95%Hormuz → Naphtha cut → No food packaging → Distribution collapse

75%Oil $130+ → Diesel unaffordable → Irrigation pumps stop → Crop failure

60%Houthi blockade → East Africa food imports cut → Famine

15%Bushehr contamination → Desal disabled → Gulf water crisis → Ag collapse

90%Sulfur doubled → Phosphate costs spike → Compound fertilizer crisis

Geopolitical Cascades

85%Proxy Wars (5 fronts) → NATO refusal → No mine clearance → Hormuz stays closed

80%NATO fractures → China recalculates → CRINK axis deepens → Reserves weaponized

82%Proxy Wars → 3.2M displaced → Turkey border crisis → EU migration emergency

90%Food crisis → 45M more hungry → Mass displacement → Regional destabilization

Technology & Financial Cascades

65%AWS data centers struck → Cloud outages → Gulf banking runs → Financial contagion

75%Hormuz → Qatar helium offline → Taiwan 11 days gas → Chip supply collapse

65%Digital strikes → Submarine cables cut → 5-month repair → Internet degradation

70%Oil spike → Inflation → Rate holds → Private credit defaults → Contagion

70%Cyber attacks → CIPS surges → De-dollarization accelerates → USD undermined

85%Insurance withdrawal → Hormuz blockade-by-premium → Shipping paralysis

↺ Feedback Loops

These cascade links flow backward from downstream effects to root causes, creating self-reinforcing escalation cycles

↺

Digital Strikes → Cyber Threat

Physical data center destruction compounds software-based cyber attacks

↺

NATO Crisis → Hormuz Closure

No allied naval support extends mine clearance and Hormuz reopening timeline