Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea Double Chokepoint
Despite declaring 'Hour Zero,' Houthis have NOT resumed Red Sea attacks after 3 weeks — a surprise to analysts. Intel suggests they await an Iranian signal and exercise strategic patience due to heavy US naval presence. Risk lower than initial assessment, but reinforcements pushed to Hodeidah coast.
50%
ElevatedBase: 60%
Modifier: -10
Severity: ●●●●●
Key Indicators
Related Intelligence (5)
Hormuz closure plus Houthi Red Sea disruption creates dual supply bottleneck; African rerouting adds weeks to transit
Hormuz closure ongoing with Red Sea already disrupted by Houthi ceasefire violations
Three weeks of restraint suggests Houthis may not open second front; risk overestimated
Explicit declaration of intent to close second chokepoint
Disruption to both Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea traffic creating dual maritime chokepoint crisis