Investment Opportunities
War-linked positions organized by conviction and scenario portfolio
Scenario Portfolios
Hormuz Stays Closed
Total: 100% allocated
War Escalates
Total: 75% allocated
Food Crisis
Total: 75% allocated
Positions (9)
CF Industries · Fertilizer
+37%
$130
Largest US ammonia producer. Produces domestically using cheap US natural gas (~$4/MMBtu) while 46% of global urea is blocked behind Hormuz. Margins expanding explosively.
Nutrien · Fertilizer
+20%
$76
World's largest fertilizer company. Produces all three macronutrients (N, P, K). 1,500+ retail locations. Multiple analyst upgrades — Wells Fargo $100, Jefferies $96, CIBC $90.
Frontline · Tankers
+62.58%
$35
81-vessel tanker fleet. VLCC spot rates at $423,736/day all-time record. Breakeven ~$25K/day. Making $400K/day profit per VLCC. Every day Hormuz stays closed, FRO prints money.
ExxonMobil · Energy
+30%
$135
Most diversified oil major. 4.7M boe/day production. $20B buyback for 2026. Primarily US/Guyana production — insulated from Gulf risk. New ATH.
Palantir Technologies · Defense AI
+17%
$157
Gotham platform being used for military targeting/analytics in Iran campaign. Revenue up 56% to $4.4B. Management guides 61% growth to $7.19B in 2026. War validates AI warfare.
CrowdStrike · Cybersecurity
+33%
$426
Detected Russian hackers supporting Iran targeting US industries. Morningstar upgraded moat to 'wide.' Analyst target $665 (+41% upside). Cyber threats don't end with ceasefires.
DHT Holdings · Tankers
+36%
$17
Same tanker thesis as FRO but cheaper. 76% of Q1 spot days booked at $78,900/day vs $18,300 breakeven. Secured 1-year charter at $94,000/day. Lower leverage.
Bunge Global · Grain Trading
+12%
$118
Just merged with Viterra. Grain trading profits spike when markets are volatile and supply is tight. BMO target $135. Positioned for Q3-Q4 2026 harvest disruption.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF · Gold Mining
+25%
Gold had worst week since 1983 (-10.4%). But JPM target $6,300 (38% upside), Deutsche $6,000. Mining stocks with record FCF are cheap. Contrarian entry if war drags on.
Avoid List (3)
Mosaic · Fertilizer
Net BUYER of sulfur (which doubled). $250M EBITDA hit estimated. Worst-positioned major fertilizer company.
Tyson Foods · Protein
Beef segment losing $319M/quarter. Chicken gains don't offset. Hedges expiring into higher costs.
Deere & Co · Farm Equipment
Counter-cyclical to fertilizer crisis. Down 15.5% from Feb high. Equipment spending declines when input costs soar.