DAY 24

Investment Opportunities

War-linked positions organized by conviction and scenario portfolio

Scenario Portfolios

Hormuz Stays Closed

CF
25%
NTR
20%
FRO
20%
XOM
15%
CRWD
10%
BG
10%

Total: 100% allocated

War Escalates

CF
20%
FRO
15%
PLTR
20%
CRWD
10%
GDX
10%

Total: 75% allocated

Food Crisis

CF
30%
NTR
25%
BG
20%

Total: 75% allocated

Positions (9)

CFTier 1

CF Industries · Fertilizer

+37%

$130

★★★★★

Largest US ammonia producer. Produces domestically using cheap US natural gas (~$4/MMBtu) while 46% of global urea is blocked behind Hormuz. Margins expanding explosively.

NTRTier 1

Nutrien · Fertilizer

+20%

$76

★★★★★

World's largest fertilizer company. Produces all three macronutrients (N, P, K). 1,500+ retail locations. Multiple analyst upgrades — Wells Fargo $100, Jefferies $96, CIBC $90.

FROTier 1

Frontline · Tankers

+62.58%

$35

★★★★

81-vessel tanker fleet. VLCC spot rates at $423,736/day all-time record. Breakeven ~$25K/day. Making $400K/day profit per VLCC. Every day Hormuz stays closed, FRO prints money.

XOMTier 1

ExxonMobil · Energy

+30%

$135

★★★★

Most diversified oil major. 4.7M boe/day production. $20B buyback for 2026. Primarily US/Guyana production — insulated from Gulf risk. New ATH.

PLTRTier 2

Palantir Technologies · Defense AI

+17%

$157

★★★★

Gotham platform being used for military targeting/analytics in Iran campaign. Revenue up 56% to $4.4B. Management guides 61% growth to $7.19B in 2026. War validates AI warfare.

CRWDTier 2

CrowdStrike · Cybersecurity

+33%

$426

★★★★

Detected Russian hackers supporting Iran targeting US industries. Morningstar upgraded moat to 'wide.' Analyst target $665 (+41% upside). Cyber threats don't end with ceasefires.

DHTTier 2

DHT Holdings · Tankers

+36%

$17

★★★★

Same tanker thesis as FRO but cheaper. 76% of Q1 spot days booked at $78,900/day vs $18,300 breakeven. Secured 1-year charter at $94,000/day. Lower leverage.

BGTier 3

Bunge Global · Grain Trading

+12%

$118

★★★☆☆

Just merged with Viterra. Grain trading profits spike when markets are volatile and supply is tight. BMO target $135. Positioned for Q3-Q4 2026 harvest disruption.

GDXTier 3

VanEck Gold Miners ETF · Gold Mining

+25%

★★★☆☆

Gold had worst week since 1983 (-10.4%). But JPM target $6,300 (38% upside), Deutsche $6,000. Mining stocks with record FCF are cheap. Contrarian entry if war drags on.

Avoid List (3)

MOS

Mosaic · Fertilizer

+6%

Net BUYER of sulfur (which doubled). $250M EBITDA hit estimated. Worst-positioned major fertilizer company.

Fertilizer Crisis · harmed by
TSN

Tyson Foods · Protein

Beef segment losing $319M/quarter. Chicken gains don't offset. Hedges expiring into higher costs.

Food Crisis · harmed by
DE

Deere & Co · Farm Equipment

-15.5%

Counter-cyclical to fertilizer crisis. Down 15.5% from Feb high. Equipment spending declines when input costs soar.

Fertilizer Crisis · harmed by