Conflict Timeline
Day-by-day chronicle from February 28, 2026 to present
Day 23
Mar 22
Trump Issues 48-Hour Hormuz Ultimatum
SEV 5Trump threatens to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants 'starting with the biggest one first' unless Hormuz fully reopens within 48 hours. Most dangerous escalation point of the war.
Iran Counter-Threatens: 'Complete' Hormuz Closure + All Energy Infrastructure
SEV 5Iran warns it will attack all regional energy infrastructure linked to the US and Israel and completely close Hormuz if power plants are hit. Threatens 'irreversible damage.'
Day 22
Mar 21
Iran Strikes Near Israel's Dimona Nuclear Center
SEV 5Iranian missiles hit Arad and Dimona area — first time Israel's nuclear research center targeted. 100+ injured. Retaliation for Israeli strike on Natanz. Netanyahu threatens more attacks.
Day 21
Mar 20
Oil Peaks at $126/barrel — Largest Disruption Since 1973
SEV 5Brent crude hits $126. Goldman Sachs says triple-digit oil 'for years.' IEA confirms 20M bpd disrupted. Trump temporarily lifts some Iran sanctions to ease markets.
Trump Considers 'Winding Down' — Deploys More Marines
SEV 3Trump says he's considering winding down military efforts. But simultaneously deploys more Marines, Apaches, and A-10s. Iranian attacks down 90% from early days.
Stryker Medical Hit by Iranian Hackers
SEV 3Iran-linked MOIS/Handala group disrupts Stryker operations — first major US company cyberattacked since war started. DOJ separately disrupts Iranian psyops.
UN: 45M More People at Risk of Acute Hunger
SEV 5UN warns conflict could push 45M additional people into acute hunger, breaking the global record of 319M. One-third of shipped fertilizer blocked at Hormuz.
Day 20
Mar 19
17% of Qatar LNG Knocked Out for 3-5 Years
SEV 5Assessment confirms 2 of 14 Ras Laffan trains damaged long-term. Global LNG market faces years of tightness.
Day 19
Mar 18
Israel Strikes South Pars Gas Field
SEV 5Israel hits world's largest gas field shared by Iran and Qatar. Iran threatens to strike Gulf energy facilities in response.
Projectile Hits Bushehr Nuclear Plant Grounds
SEV 5IAEA confirms projectile struck Bushehr grounds. Warns of 'reddest line.' No radiation increase detected.
Day 18
Mar 17
Ali Larijani Killed — Iran Retaliates on Gulf
SEV 4Senior Iranian official killed in targeted strike. Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Kuwait, UAE, Saudi refineries.
Day 16
Mar 15
Houthis Declare 'Hour Zero'
SEV 5Houthis announce military alignment with Iran. Declare naval blockade in Bab el-Mandeb. Red Sea transits drop to 10/day.
Day 14
Mar 13
Kharg Island Military Targets Struck
SEV 4US strikes 90+ military sites on Kharg Island. Oil infrastructure deliberately spared. Trump warns future oil strikes possible.
Day 11
Mar 10
Iran Begins Laying Mines in Hormuz
SEV 5Mine-laying operations confirmed. Few dozen mines deployed. Insurance markets suspend coverage for strait transit.
Day 9
Mar 8
Tehran Refinery + 7 Fuel Depots Destroyed
SEV 4Systematic strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Toxic smoke blankets Tehran. WHO raises alarm.
Oil Crosses $100/barrel
SEV 4Brent crude surpasses $100/bbl for first time in four years. Up 40%+ from pre-war levels.
Day 4
Mar 3
IRGC Declares Hormuz Closed
SEV 5IRGC broadcasts VHF declaring Strait of Hormuz passages 'not allowed.' Commercial shipping halts.
Iranian Cyber Attacks Hit US Banks, Airports
SEV 3Seedworm and MuddyWater deploy wiper malware against US critical infrastructure.
Day 3
Mar 2
Ras Laffan LNG Struck — Qatar Halts All LNG
SEV 5Iranian drones damage Ras Laffan. QatarEnergy suspends ALL LNG production. QAFCO urea plant (14% of world supply) halted.
Ras Tanura Refinery Hit
SEV 4Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550K b/d) struck by drone. Operations halted.
Day 1
Feb 28
Operation Epic Fury Begins
SEV 5US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed. IRGC command centers destroyed.
Iran Retaliates Across Region
SEV 5500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones launched at Israel, US bases in Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, and Gulf energy infrastructure.