Strait of Hormuz Prolonged Closure
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since March 2, with tanker traffic down 95%. War risk premiums surged 25x (0.2% → 5% of ship value), costing $600K-$1.2M per transit vs normal $40K. Lloyd's JWC Listed Area designation means insurance-enforced closure — even if military reopens strait, shipping won't resume until insurance normalizes. Only 77 ships transited in the first half of March. No allied naval support extends mine clearance indefinitely.
85%
CriticalBase: 85%
Modifier: +0
Severity: ●●●●●
Key Indicators
Cascade Chain
Triggered by
Hormuz Closure
85%
Triggers
Fertilizer Crisis
90%
46% of global urea, 50% of sulfur, 23% of ammonia blocked...
Oil Recession
75%
20% of global oil supply (~20M bpd) trapped behind closed st...
Packaging Crisis
95%
80% of Asia's seaborne naphtha imports from Middle East via ...
Double Chokepoint
50%
Hormuz closure increases strategic value of Bab el-Mandeb, i...
China Clock
85%
China lost 77% of Hormuz oil flow, drawing down 120-day stra...
Chip Supply
75%
Helium and LNG from Gulf blocked — Taiwan has 11 days gas, Q...
Related Intelligence (17)
Hormuz blockade ongoing; Iran developing selective vetting system for passage
Direct binary escalation — if carried out, Iran promised complete closure
Threat to close even the selective Larak corridor would bring traffic from 2% to 0%
Threat to move from partial to complete closure — currently allowing some selective passage
Hard AIS data confirms 97.9% traffic collapse — near-total operational closure
Ultimatum dramatically raises stakes — Hormuz now linked to power grid destruction
Trump's 48-hour ultimatum confirms Strait remains largely closed three weeks into conflict, disrupting one-fifth of global crude supply
Selective passage indicates some trade preserved, not complete closure
First 'winding down' signal, but contradicted by troop deployments
Selective transit resuming with ~90 vessels indicates partial rather than total blockade — slight improvement
Potential for limited allied naval cooperation on freedom of navigation
Escalation reduces ceasefire prospects
Loss of key moderate reduces chances of negotiated Hormuz reopening
No allied naval support extends Hormuz mine clearance timeline indefinitely
No ceasefire means Hormuz stays closed indefinitely
Double chokepoint reduces incentive to negotiate Hormuz opening
Even if military reopens strait, shipping won't resume until insurance normalizes