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escalatory·6d ago·Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Israel Assassinates Ali Larijani — Key Moderate Figure Killed
escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
Israel assassinated Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in a targeted strike. Larijani was seen as one of the few Iranian officials who might negotiate with the West. His death further closes the diplomatic window.
Risk Impacts (2)
Loss of key moderate reduces chances of negotiated Hormuz reopening
Current probability:85%Critical
Assassination escalation cycle increases risk of crossing nuclear red lines
Current probability:25%Moderate