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escalatory·6d ago·Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Iran's Neighbors Activate Contingency Plans for Mass Refugee Flows
escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
All seven of Iran's border neighbors are preparing contingency plans. Turkey has a 3-tier plan from border interception to controlled refugee entry. Iraq shares a 1,600km border and faces dual pressure. 10,000+ civilian sites damaged in Iran including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities.
Risk Impacts (1)
Seven countries simultaneously activating contingency plans signals serious assessed probability
Current probability:82%Critical