Refugee & Migration Crisis
3.2M Iranians displaced in under 2 weeks (UNHCR confirmed). Iran hosts 2.5M Afghan/Iraqi refugees facing 'double displacement.' Turkey activated 3-tier contingency plans including border buffer zones. 1,300 Iranians crossing into Turkey daily. EU asylum agency warns even 10% displacement of Iran's 90M population would be unprecedented. Extraordinary EU interior ministers meeting scheduled for April.
82%
CriticalBase: 75%
Modifier: +7
Severity: ●●●●○
Key Indicators
Cascade Chain
Related Intelligence (11)
1M+ displaced in Lebanon from ground invasion
Water system collapse would trigger mass displacement from Gulf states
Nuclear incident risk drives potential mass evacuation from Gulf region affecting millions
Seven countries simultaneously activating contingency plans signals serious assessed probability
800,000+ Lebanese displaced; EU deploying containment measures with Tunisia and North African nations
3.2M displaced in Iran; 815K in Lebanon; medical infrastructure targeted; aid budgets slashed
Double displacement of 2.5M existing refugees compounds the crisis
3.2M internally displaced in 2 weeks — extraordinary velocity of displacement
Cross-border flow still minimal despite massive internal displacement — mitigating factor
Emergency budget requests and ministerial meetings signal serious behind-the-scenes concern
1M Lebanese displaced adds to regional displacement crisis
Linked Investments (0)
No linked investments.