Refugee & Migration Crisis
3.2M Iranians displaced in under 2 weeks (UNHCR confirmed). Iran hosts 2.5M Afghan/Iraqi refugees facing 'double displacement.' Turkey activated 3-tier contingency plans including border buffer zones. 1,300 Iranians crossing into Turkey daily. EU asylum agency warns even 10% displacement of Iran's 90M population would be unprecedented. Extraordinary EU interior ministers meeting scheduled for April.
82%
CriticalBase: 75%
Modifier: +7
Severity: ●●●●○
Key Indicators
Cascade Chain
Related Intelligence (7)
Seven countries simultaneously activating contingency plans signals serious assessed probability
800,000+ Lebanese displaced; EU deploying containment measures with Tunisia and North African nations
Double displacement of 2.5M existing refugees compounds the crisis
3.2M internally displaced in 2 weeks — extraordinary velocity of displacement
Cross-border flow still minimal despite massive internal displacement — mitigating factor
Emergency budget requests and ministerial meetings signal serious behind-the-scenes concern
1M Lebanese displaced adds to regional displacement crisis
Linked Investments (0)
No linked investments.