DAY 84
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military·immediateescalating

Proxy War Expansion (Lebanon / Iraq Fronts)

Hezbollah launched 200+ rockets on Day 1, displacing 1M Lebanese. Iraqi militias claimed 290+ attacks on US forces across 500+ incidents. This is an active multi-front ground war that the dashboard's original supply-chain focus completely missed. Proxy fragmentation risks autonomous actors that outlast any ceasefire.

80%

Critical

Base: 80%

Modifier: +0

Severity: ●●●●●

Key Indicators

Hezbollah rocket launches per day
Iraqi militia attack frequency on US forces
Lebanese civilian displacement count
IRGC command & control status

Related Intelligence (11)

Mar 21Fox News+7%
LIVE UPDATES: Iran Reportedly Fires Missiles at US Base in Indian Ocean

Iranian threats to target US and Israeli energy infrastructure represent expansion of conflict beyond direct military targets

Mar 21NPR+8%
Iran War Enters Fourth Week With Multiple Active Fronts — No End in Sight

Five confirmed active fronts with degrading central command

Mar 21The Jerusalem Post+7%
Over 100 Wounded in Arad, Dimona in Direct Hits Amid Barrage From Iran, Lebanon

Hezbollah simultaneously launched rockets and drones from Lebanon, demonstrating coordinated multi-front warfare

Mar 20CNN+5%
Pentagon Says Iranian Missile Capability Degraded 90% But Proxy Attacks Surging

Proxy autonomy increases as central command degrades — harder to stop

Mar 20ACLED / The Hill+12%
Iraqi Militias Claim 290+ Attacks on US Forces in First Three Weeks

Sustained high-tempo militia attacks confirm Iraq as active warfront

Mar 20US News+8%
NATO Withdraws All Troops From Iraq Advisory Mission

NATO withdrawal creates security vacuum for militia expansion

Mar 20Haaretz+6%
IDF Data: Over 90% of Iranian Missiles Fired at Israel Have Been Intercepted

Iran's sustained campaign with 1,000+ missiles remaining demonstrates extended conflict capability and prolonged proxy warfare

Mar 18EUobserver+9%
Cyprus Looks to EU Joint-Defence Amid NATO Split on Iran

Iranian attacks on EU territory (Cyprus) represent direct expansion beyond Middle East theater into Mediterranean

Mar 15The Times of Israel+9%
IDF Planning 3 More Weeks of Operations to Systematically Degrade Iran's Defense Industry

Systematic destruction of Iranian command centers will trigger intensified proxy responses across the region

Mar 2European Council on Foreign Relations+11%
A War With No Winners: The Costs of US-Israeli Aggression on Iran

Conflict explicitly drawn Lebanon, Iraq, Gulf states into active fighting — major regional expansion

Mar 1Al Jazeera+15%
Hezbollah Launches 200+ Rockets at Israel on Day 1 of Iran War

Confirms active multi-front war — not just a US-Iran bilateral conflict

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