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escalatory·1d ago·Saturday, March 21, 2026
LIVE UPDATES: Iran Reportedly Fires Missiles at US Base in Indian Ocean
escalatory·95% confidence
Summary
Iran launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK base in the Indian Ocean ~2,500 miles away; neither struck the base. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on power plants. US CENTCOM reports 8,000+ combat flights maintaining air superiority over Iran.
Risk Impacts (3)
Trump's 48-hour ultimatum confirms Strait remains largely closed three weeks into conflict, disrupting one-fifth of global crude supply
Current probability:85%Critical
Continued Hormuz restrictions maintaining elevated oil prices; threat to Iranian power plants could further destabilize markets
Current probability:75%High
Iranian threats to target US and Israeli energy infrastructure represent expansion of conflict beyond direct military targets
Current probability:80%Critical