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escalatory·Mar 1·Sunday, March 1, 2026
Hezbollah Launches 200+ Rockets at Israel on Day 1 of Iran War
escalatory·95% confidence
Summary
Hezbollah launched over 200 rockets toward northern Israel within hours of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, opening an active second front. Over 1 million Lebanese have been displaced. The attack represents the largest Hezbollah barrage since the 2006 war.
Risk Impacts (2)
Confirms active multi-front war — not just a US-Iran bilateral conflict
Current probability:80%Critical
Refugee CrisisRefugee & Migration Crisis
+5%moderate
1M Lebanese displaced adds to regional displacement crisis
Current probability:82%Critical