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escalatory·Mar 2·Monday, March 2, 2026
A War With No Winners: The Costs of US-Israeli Aggression on Iran
escalatory·96% confidence
Summary
ECFR analysis of opening US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Conflict has drawn Lebanon, Iraq, Gulf states into fighting. Iranian retaliation targeted US bases, airports, energy facilities across Gulf. European military bases in UAE and Cyprus hit. Hundreds of thousands of European citizens trapped in region.
Risk Impacts (3)
Disruption to both Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea traffic creating dual maritime chokepoint crisis
Current probability:50%Elevated
Conflict explicitly drawn Lebanon, Iraq, Gulf states into active fighting — major regional expansion
Current probability:80%Critical
Energy facilities across Gulf targeted by Iranian strikes creating massive supply disruption beyond strait closure
Current probability:75%High