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escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
NATO withdrew all troops from its Iraq advisory mission as the war's consequences spread regionally. The withdrawal signals the collapse of Western security architecture in Iraq and creates a vacuum that militia groups are filling.
Risk Impacts (2)
NATO withdrawal creates security vacuum for militia expansion
Current probability:80%Critical
NATO CrisisNATO / Alliance Fractures
+5%moderate
Operational withdrawal demonstrates alliance dysfunction
Current probability:85%Critical