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escalatory·Mar 15·Sunday, March 15, 2026
IDF Planning 3 More Weeks of Operations to Systematically Degrade Iran's Defense Industry
escalatory·94% confidence
Summary
IDF announces plans for at least three more weeks of intensive strikes through Passover, targeting Iran's entire defense manufacturing base. Over 1,700 military-industrial assets destroyed with 'thousands more' on target lists. Iran has lost 70% of missile launchers and lacks capacity to produce new missiles.
Risk Impacts (3)
Explicit Israeli targeting of nuclear weapons development sites signals imminent strikes on Bushehr reactor
Current probability:25%Moderate
Three more weeks of intensive operations guarantee continued market uncertainty and supply disruption fears
Current probability:75%High
Systematic destruction of Iranian command centers will trigger intensified proxy responses across the region
Current probability:80%Critical