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escalatory·Mar 15·Sunday, March 15, 2026
Houthis Declare 'Hour Zero' — Threaten Red Sea Naval Blockade
escalatory·90% confidence
Summary
Houthi forces declared military alignment with Iran and announced 'Hour Zero' for a naval blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Red Sea transits dropped to 10 per day from normal 40+.
Risk Impacts (2)
Explicit declaration of intent to close second chokepoint
Current probability:50%Elevated
Double chokepoint reduces incentive to negotiate Hormuz opening
Current probability:85%Critical