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escalatory·Mar 15·Sunday, March 15, 2026
Both Hormuz and Red Sea Now No-Go Zones for Cable Repair Ships
escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
17+ submarine cables carrying 30% of global internet traffic run through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea — both now closed to commercial cable repair vessels. If any cable is severed, minimum 5-month repair timeline. SEA-ME-WE 6 further delayed, Fibre in Gulf suspended, WorldLink collapsed.
Risk Impacts (2)
30% of global internet at risk with no repair capability — unprecedented dual chokepoint
Current probability:65%High
Financial system depends on submarine cable connectivity for real-time transactions
Current probability:70%High