Global Fertilizer Supply Collapse
46% of global urea, 50% of sulfur exports, and 23% of ammonia transit Hormuz — all blocked. Urea prices up 44% to $683/mt. US faces 25% supply shortage. Beyond the blockade, direct strikes on production facilities are compounding the crisis: Ras Laffan LNG complex (years to repair) produced ammonia feedstock from natural gas, and Israeli strikes on South Pars gas field damaged upstream supply for Qatar and Iran's own fertilizer plants. China imposed a near-total export ban through August, eliminating the last alternative. Spring planting is already compromised — if unresolved by May, 2026 harvest locked in as reduced.
90%
CriticalBase: 90%
Modifier: +0
Severity: ●●●●●
Key Indicators
Related Intelligence (6)
Eliminates the most plausible alternative supply source
One-third of global shipped fertilizer now blocked at Hormuz
Confirmed supply shortage in world's largest ag economy
QAFCO (14% of world urea) production halted with LNG shutdown
World's largest urea producer withholding exports eliminates key alternative supply
EU Foreign Policy Chief warned fertilizer shipment disruptions through Hormuz threaten global food security
Linked Investments (4)
Domestic producer benefits from global fertilizer scarcity
Diversified fertilizer producer with retail distribution advantage
Net buyer of sulfur (which doubled). $250M EBITDA hit estimated.
Farm equipment demand drops when farmer margins collapse.