escalatory·4d ago·Thursday, March 19, 2026

US Farmers Face 25% Fertilizer Shortage — Spring Planting at Risk

escalatory·95% confidence

Summary

American Farm Bureau reports a 25% fertilizer supply shortage for the current planting season. Farmers shifting acreage from corn to soybeans and reducing application rates by up to 25%.

Risk Impacts (2)

Fertilizer CrisisGlobal Fertilizer Supply Collapse

+5%moderate

Confirmed supply shortage in world's largest ag economy

Current probability:90%Critical

Food CrisisGlobal Food Price Crisis & Regional Famines

+5%moderate

Reduced fertilizer application means lower yields locked in for 2026 harvest

Current probability:95%Critical

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American Farm Bureau

https://fb.org

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