DAY 84
Back to Dashboard
geopolitical·monthsescalating

China 120-Day Reserve Depletion

China lost 77% of its Hormuz oil flow. Strategic reserves last ~120 days (~late June 2026). But reserves are only one dimension — China signed a strategic pact with Russia and Iran on Feb 2, CIPS processed $245T in 2025 (+43%), and 11.7M barrels of Iranian crude have been settled outside the dollar since war began. China may choose confrontation BEFORE reserves deplete. The CRINK axis (China-Russia-Iran-North Korea) is formalizing.

85%

Critical

Base: 85%

Modifier: +0

Severity: ●●●●●

Key Indicators

China Hormuz import volumes
Chinese diplomatic statements
PLAN naval movements in Indian Ocean
Reserve drawdown rate estimates
CIPS monthly transaction volumes
Iran-China-Russia trilateral summit activity

Related Intelligence (4)

Mar 19Business Standard+5%
China CIPS Processed $245 Trillion in 2025 — Iranian Oil Settled Outside Dollar

Yuan-for-passage scheme would give China special access while excluding others

Mar 18Foreign Policy+3%
Foreign Policy: 'NATO and the G-7 Are Just as Divided as BRICS'

NATO fractures change China's strategic calculus — less deterrence against assertive action

Mar 18Fox News+8%
Winning the Battles, Losing the War? America Must Define the Endgame in Iran

Critical precision weapons stockpiles for Pacific deterrence being exhausted; replacements take years to manufacture

Mar 16CNBC+3%
China Will Not Export Urea Until August 2026

Export ban signals China preparing for extended crisis

Linked Investments (0)

No linked investments.