China 120-Day Reserve Depletion
China lost 77% of its Hormuz oil flow. Strategic reserves last ~120 days (~late June 2026). But reserves are only one dimension — China signed a strategic pact with Russia and Iran on Feb 2, CIPS processed $245T in 2025 (+43%), and 11.7M barrels of Iranian crude have been settled outside the dollar since war began. China may choose confrontation BEFORE reserves deplete. The CRINK axis (China-Russia-Iran-North Korea) is formalizing.
85%
CriticalBase: 85%
Modifier: +0
Severity: ●●●●●
Key Indicators
Related Intelligence (7)
Complete closure eliminates China's approved-nation workaround
Approved-nation corridor provides some relief to China's reserve depletion
Iran maintaining exports to China extends reserve depletion timeline
Yuan-for-passage scheme would give China special access while excluding others
NATO fractures change China's strategic calculus — less deterrence against assertive action
Critical precision weapons stockpiles for Pacific deterrence being exhausted; replacements take years to manufacture
Export ban signals China preparing for extended crisis
Linked Investments (0)
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