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escalatory·4d ago·Thursday, March 19, 2026
China CIPS Processed $245 Trillion in 2025 — Iranian Oil Settled Outside Dollar
escalatory·91% confidence
Summary
China's CIPS processed $245T in 2025 (up 43% YoY). Since war began, 11.7M barrels of Iranian crude moved to Chinese refineries — every barrel settled outside the dollar. China buys 90% of Iran's oil exports ($8B/year) entirely in non-dollar architecture. Iran signals yuan-for-passage at Hormuz.
Risk Impacts (2)
Structural de-dollarization accelerating — war creating live demo of non-dollar energy trade
Current probability:70%High
China ClockChina 120-Day Reserve Depletion
+5%moderate
Yuan-for-passage scheme would give China special access while excluding others
Current probability:85%Critical