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escalatory·Mar 6·Friday, March 6, 2026
Marine Insurers Withdraw War Risk Cover — Hormuz Transits Collapse 80%
escalatory·95% confidence
Summary
Within 72 hours of war start, 6 major P&I clubs cancelled war risk coverage for all Gulf vessels. Hormuz transits collapsed 80% — effectively shut down by insurance withdrawal, not military action. War premiums surged to 5% of vessel value (25x normal). Only 77 ships transited Hormuz in the first half of March.
Risk Impacts (2)
Insurance-driven blockade is a financial mechanism, not military — demonstrates system fragility
Current probability:70%High
Even if military reopens strait, shipping won't resume until insurance normalizes
Current probability:85%Critical