DAY 24
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neutral·2d ago·Friday, March 20, 2026

Trump Considers 'Winding Down' War — But Deploys More Marines

NPR
neutral·75% confidence

Summary

Trump said his administration is considering 'winding down' military efforts. However, he simultaneously deployed more Marines and began using Apache helicopters and A-10 Warthogs. Pentagon says Iranian missile/drone attacks are down 90% from early days.

Risk Impacts (2)

First 'winding down' signal, but contradicted by troop deployments

Current probability:85%Critical

Markets briefly rallied on winding down talk before reality set in

Current probability:75%High