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escalatory·1d ago·Sunday, March 22, 2026
Iran Threatens 'Complete' Hormuz Closure and Regional Energy Attacks If Power Plants Hit
escalatory·94% confidence
Summary
Iran's military warned it would attack all energy infrastructure linked to the US and Israel in the Middle East if its power plants are targeted. Iran threatened 'irreversible damage' and a 'complete' closure of Hormuz — escalating from the current partial blockade.
Risk Impacts (3)
Threat to move from partial to complete closure — currently allowing some selective passage
Current probability:85%Critical
Threat to attack ALL regional energy infrastructure includes desalination plants
Current probability:60%High
Counter-threat to hit Gulf energy facilities would send oil well past $130
Current probability:75%High