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escalatory·Mar 9·Monday, March 9, 2026
Iran War Threatens AI Infrastructure as Cloud and Chip Supply Chains Converge
escalatory·90% confidence
Summary
Analysis of how the Iran war simultaneously disrupted both cloud infrastructure (AWS strikes) and semiconductor supply chains (helium, LNG for Taiwan), creating a compound threat to global AI/tech infrastructure that no single risk model anticipated.
Risk Impacts (2)
Compound cloud + chip disruption is worse than either alone
Current probability:75%High
AI infrastructure faces dual supply-side and demand-side stress
Current probability:65%High