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escalatory·2d ago·Saturday, March 21, 2026
Iran Strikes Near Israel's Dimona Nuclear Center — First Time Targeted
escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
Iranian missiles struck Arad and Dimona in southern Israel, near Israel's nuclear research center — the first time it was targeted in this war. Over 100 people injured. Iran said it was retaliation for the Israeli strike on Natanz. Netanyahu threatened more attacks in response.
Risk Impacts (2)
Tit-for-tat nuclear facility targeting: Natanz → Dimona → risk of Bushehr escalation
Current probability:25%Moderate
Nuclear targeting cycle increases probability of radiological incident
Current probability:60%High