DAY 24
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escalatory·Mar 5·Thursday, March 5, 2026

Iran-US War Puts Subsea Cable Network 'On a Knife-Edge'

escalatory·90% confidence

Summary

Published days after the conflict began, this was among the first to identify the systemic risk: simultaneous closure of Hormuz and the Red Sea puts ~30% of global internet traffic at risk with no feasible rerouting alternative. Houthi resumption of Red Sea attacks compounds the threat.

Risk Impacts (1)

Early warning of dual-chokepoint digital vulnerability — 30% of global internet

Current probability:65%High