DAY 24
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escalatory·1d ago·Sunday, March 22, 2026

Asia faces cascading economic crisis as Iran war disrupts supply chains across the region

NPR
escalatory·90% confidence

Summary

South Korea's petrochemical shutdowns, Japan's naphtha crisis, Taiwan's 11-day gas reserves, India's diesel irrigation costs, and Pakistan's fertilizer shortage are converging into a region-wide economic emergency. FT's Martin Wolf warns of potentially 'one of the biggest shocks in the postwar period.'

Risk Impacts (4)

Region-wide petrochemical crisis confirms packaging supply chain collapse across Asia

Current probability:95%Critical

Taiwan's 11-day gas reserves threaten TSMC power supply

Current probability:75%High

India/Pakistan diesel costs actively impacting irrigation operations during planting season

Current probability:78%High

Converging Asian supply chain failures compound global food system stress

Current probability:95%Critical