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escalatory·1d ago·Sunday, March 22, 2026
Only 16 AIS-visible Hormuz crossings in seven days — maritime intelligence report
escalatory·95% confidence
Summary
Windward's daily AIS tracking reports only 16 vessel crossings of Hormuz in 7 days vs 750+ normal — a 97.9% traffic collapse. 686 vessels remain trapped in the Arabian Gulf. Kuwait's jet fuel exports (10% of global seaborne supply) have halted entirely. Gulf crude exports fell to just 23 million barrels over the week.
Risk Impacts (3)
Hard AIS data confirms 97.9% traffic collapse — near-total operational closure
Current probability:85%Critical
Gulf crude at 23M bbl/week vs 70M normal — 67% reduction in world's key oil corridor
Current probability:75%High
Near-zero naphtha transit through Hormuz confirmed by tracking data
Current probability:95%Critical