Back to News Feed
escalatory·3d ago·Friday, March 20, 2026
Tehran's oil exports remain resilient as Iran weaponizes Hormuz passage
escalatory·88% confidence
Summary
Despite the war, Iran maintains 1.2M bpd in oil exports through the Larak corridor to buyers settling in yuan and rupees, while non-Iranian Gulf exports collapsed from 14M to 400K bpd. Iran is weaponizing Hormuz as economic warfare — rewarding non-Western nations while punishing US allies.
Risk Impacts (3)
Yuan/rupee oil settlements accelerate de-dollarization during wartime
Current probability:70%High
Iran maintaining exports to China extends reserve depletion timeline
Current probability:85%Critical
Two-tier system creates economic incentives for allies to break ranks
Current probability:85%Critical