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escalatory·3d ago·Friday, March 20, 2026
Iran war: What is happening on day 21 of US-Israel attacks
escalatory·85% confidence
Summary
Israel struck South Pars gasfield; Iran warns zero restraint if energy facilities attacked again; Qatar LNG capacity down 17%.
Risk Impacts (2)
South Pars strike plus Qatar LNG forced shutdown signals sustained energy disruption with 3-5 year repair timeline
Current probability:75%High
Energy facility attacks threaten fertilizer production; European gas prices pushing agricultural input costs higher
Current probability:95%Critical