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escalatory·1d ago·Sunday, March 22, 2026
Iran threatens to 'completely' close Strait of Hormuz following Trump's ultimatum
escalatory·93% confidence
Summary
Iran vowed to implement complete and total closure of the Strait of Hormuz — ending even the selective Larak Island corridor for approved nations — if Trump follows through on his 48-hour ultimatum. The conflict has displaced 3.2 million, killed over 2,000, and disrupted global energy supplies.
Risk Impacts (2)
Threat to close even the selective Larak corridor would bring traffic from 2% to 0%
Current probability:85%Critical
China ClockChina 120-Day Reserve Depletion
+3%moderate
Complete closure eliminates China's approved-nation workaround
Current probability:85%Critical