Back to News Feed
escalatory·2d ago·Saturday, March 21, 2026
China restricts fertilizer exports, further crimping war-tightened supply
escalatory·90% confidence
Summary
China imposed near-total fertilizer export ban effective mid-March, restricting 50-75% of exports (up to 40 million metric tons). Not expected to lift before August.
Risk Impacts (2)
Eliminates the most plausible alternative supply source
Current probability:90%Critical
Compounds fertilizer shortage during spring planting
Current probability:95%Critical