escalatory·3d ago·Friday, March 20, 2026

Iran war updates: Trump baulks at truce as attacks hammer Israel and Gulf

escalatory·92% confidence

Summary

Trump hints at winding down; Iran steps up attacks on Gulf energy sites after Israel struck South Pars; Kharg island blockade considered.

+20%major

Iran attacking Gulf energy sites; Israel targeted South Pars gas field; crude prices climbing

Current probability:75%High

+15%major

Hormuz closure ongoing with Red Sea already disrupted by Houthi ceasefire violations

Current probability:50%Elevated

Read the full article

Al Jazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-intensified-strikes-if-energy-sites-targeted

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