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escalatory·95% confidence
Summary
Iran fired 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones since Feb 28; US lifted sanctions on Iranian oil; Trump considers winding down operations.
Risk Impacts (2)
Hormuz blockade ongoing; Iran developing selective vetting system for passage
Current probability:85%Critical
BadeSaba Calendar prayer app hijacked with cyberattack messages calling for uprising
Current probability:72%High