escalatory·2d ago·Saturday, March 21, 2026

Iran targets Diego Garcia: Missiles fired at US Indian Ocean base for the first time

escalatory·93% confidence

Summary

Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the joint UK-US Diego Garcia military base 4,000km away, demonstrating capability that puts Western European capitals within reach. IDF Chief Zamir warned Iran now has missiles that can hit London, Paris, and Berlin.

Risk Impacts (2)

Proxy WarsProxy War Expansion (Lebanon / Iraq Fronts)

+7%major

First-ever attack on Diego Garcia dramatically expands geographic scope of conflict

Current probability:80%Critical

NATO CrisisNATO / Alliance Fractures

+5%moderate

European capitals confirmed within Iranian missile range changes NATO risk calculus

Current probability:85%Critical

Read the full article

Times of Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-unsuccessfully-targets-diego-garcia-base-revealing-missiles-that-can-reach-western-europe/

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