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escalatory·1d ago·Sunday, March 22, 2026
Iran says will hit region's energy sites if US, Israel target power plants
escalatory·92% confidence
Summary
Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf warned that if Iranian power plants are attacked, all US-allied energy infrastructure across the Gulf — including oil terminals, refineries, and LNG facilities — will be considered legitimate targets. This marks Iran's first explicit counter-escalation threat targeting allied civilian energy assets.
Risk Impacts (2)
Direct threat to Gulf energy infrastructure would remove additional millions of barrels from market
Current probability:75%High
Energy infrastructure includes co-located desalination plants across the Gulf
Current probability:60%High